How do Prediction Markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. All outcomes are determined by an official source that is listed within the contract rules.

Each market asks a question — for example, "Will inflation be above 3% this quarter?" — and shows a Yes price and a No price as a percentage. In this example, Yes is listed at 65% and No is listed at 35%.

• The percentage reflects the market's view of how likely that answer is. Yes at 65% means the market sees a 65% chance the answer is Yes; No at 35% means it sees a 35% chance the answer is No.
• You can buy a Yes or No contract based on your prediction.
• When you add a selection to your trade slip, you'll see that percentage chance along with the payout multiplier — the total amount you receive for every $1 you trade if you're correct, including the amount you traded. Yes at 65% is about a 1.54x multiplier; No at 35% is about a 2.86x multiplier. The lower the percentage, the higher the multiplier.
• If you're right, your payout is the amount you traded multiplied by the payout multiplier. A $10 trade on Yes at 65% would return about $15.40. If you're wrong, you receive no payout and lose the amount you traded. Fees may apply.